Continuing our annual tradition, we contacted several commercial real estate experts specializing in retail across the country to provide their expertise and predictions regarding what they expect for the retail market with upcoming retail trends moving towards 2023.
The overall insights provided by the selected retail professionals are upbeat. Interestingly enough more than half of the respondents mentioned interest rates as a protagonist this year. Other common themes that are mentioned in the predictions below are: the delivery / construction of new retail assets and population movements influencing the economy.
To accompany the various expert points below, we’ve also provided a link to a full Mall and Shopping Center Trends 2023 created by Placer.ai. This report covers several data points for different retail brands and the different types of tenants occupying retail spaces around the country.
Here is what real estate experts say on Retail Trends for 2023:
Despite economic headwinds, we expect retail real estate fundamentals to remain strong into 2023. Tenant renewals should skyrocket due to the historically low vacancy in the market and record low delivery of new space the last few years. Tenant competition for available space should remain heated which is a win for landlords. In essence, existing retail will continue to get stronger.
We also expect to see consolidation of franchisees as economic pressures impact smaller businesses. In contrast there will likely be limited large scale M&A activity due to lower equity valuations and the high cost of financing.
As for capital markets, there will be a recalibration as rising interest rates continue to affect property values. CBRE is forecasting cap rate expansion of another 25 – 50 basis points next year across all asset types, which translates to roughly another 5 – 7% decrease in value. Investment activity is projected to decrease roughly 15% year over year in 2023, but it should bottom out in the first quarter and then gradually improve if economic conditions stabilize.“
Karly Iacono, Senior Vice President, CBRE Capital Markets
With just under 1,000 people per day still moving to our state, Florida… especially to South Florida … there continues to be a very bright spot for Retail Real Estate.
I’m excited to see more restaurant and health / gym type concepts… big and small. The biggest issues I see going forward are lack of available space (with our very low vacancy rates), construction costs and therefore very high rental rates.
I think we are at a peak, rent-rate-wise.”
Russell Bornstein, Senior Director, Colliers International
My 2023 predictions are: Winter may be coming but not in South Florida.
Continued enthusiastic domestic migration causing increased retail and FB tenant sales causing frothy tenant demand, and little to no new development (due to construction costs and high interest rates) will boost rental rates and occupancies higher than we’ve ever seen.
Interest rates will start to fall 6-9 months before the next presidential election.”
Beth Azor, President, Azor Advisory Services
Net migration of consumers and corporations into Florida has fueled the development of many new office, industrial and residential developments. In contrast, we have seen a limited amount of retail development in recent years, which has led to the strongest historical operational fundamentals for shopping center landlords.
In Miami-Dade County for example, retail rental rates rose by an unprecedented 7.6% in 2022, and vacancy rates stand at 3.5%, which is 100 basis points below pre-pandemic levels.
We anticipate that Florida will lead the nation in 2023 for retail investment sales demand, fueled by out of area capital originating from the northeast, California, and Latin America.”
Kirk Olson, Senior Vice President, Institutional Property Advisors
With limited retail development throughout the Southeastern United States and strong population growth, we have seen robust demand for retail space in our region. I am not expecting new retail construction next year to meet the broad tenant demand, meaning rents will continue to grow in major markets.
Next year could present a phenomenal opportunity for well-capitalized investors that can acquire on an all-cash basis. I am eager to see where interest rates stabilize on the capital markets once the fed ceases its rate hikes.”
Anthony Blanco, Partner / Director of Investment Sales, TSCG
I’m most excited for the continued evolution of retail in South Florida, where functionally obsolete retail buildings in great areas will continue being demolished to make way for new, class-A retail, or other uses if retail is no longer the highest and best use; and most importantly, this evolution continuing despite the macro-environment affecting all types of commercial real estate across the country.”
Marcos Puente, Principal, MMG Equity Partners